Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
